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COVID-19 Immune for Travel Bans?

Aurora Brief Reviews No. 12 March 17 2020

March 2020

A group of 16 researchers from the US, Italy and China applied a global meta-population disease transmission model to assess the impact of the travel restrictions on the spread of the virus. They published the results last March 6th in a Science article The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Their results show that the travel bans delayed the spread of the disease within mainland China with no more than 3 to 5 days and globally with probably 2 to 3 weeks. According to the authors, severe travel restrictions (cancelling 90% of travel) will only modestly slow down the spread, while much more can be expected from local transmission-reduction interventions.


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